Many people feel like home prices have jumped beyond reason, and it’s easy to assume there’s a single cause. A common belief is that large investors are buying up homes and pushing prices higher. It sounds logical—but the numbers tell a different story.

The Investor Theory: Popular, but Not the Full Picture

Nationally, nearly half of Americans believe investors are the main force behind rising home prices. However, major investors—those owning 50 or more properties—make up only about 2.8% of home purchases in the past year.
In other words, investors may influence the market, but they aren’t the primary driver of home-price growth.

What’s Actually Driving Home Prices Higher

The clearest factor affecting prices today is a persistent shortage of homes. When demand outpaces supply, prices rise—even without investor activity.

A few issues keep inventory tight:

• Years of under-building
• Higher construction costs
• Limited land availability in key metro areas
• Mortgage rates that discourage existing homeowners from listing

This supply imbalance is a far bigger influence on pricing than investor purchases.

Phoenix Market Snapshot

In the Phoenix metro area, the numbers add helpful context to the conversation:

• Institutional investors purchased roughly 7–8% of homes statewide in the past year, slightly lower than the previous year.
• Through the first ten months of 2025, Phoenix recorded approximately 52,000 single-family home sales.
• The median sales price in Greater Phoenix hovered near $480,000, up about 0.4% year over year.
• Inventory improved but remained tight, averaging about 4.4 months of supply, and slightly lower—around 3.8 months—within the City of Phoenix.
• While small-scale investors (owning 3+ properties) are active across the U.S., their presence in Phoenix remains moderate and well below levels seen in some coastal markets.

These figures highlight that investor activity exists, but the dominant force shaping the local housing landscape continues to be supply constraints paired with steady buyer demand.

Why This Matters for Buyers and Sellers

Understanding the real drivers behind pricing helps cut through the noise.

For buyers:
Pricing challenges are less about being outbid by major investors and more about navigating a market with limited inventory and ongoing cost pressures.

For sellers:
Strong demand and relatively lean supply continue to support pricing stability, even with fluctuations in mortgage rates or shifts in investor participation.

Bottom Line

The idea that investors alone are causing home prices to soar makes for attention-grabbing headlines, but the real story is more straightforward. In Phoenix—and nationally—the long-term lack of available homes remains the biggest factor behind higher prices.
As supply slowly improves and market conditions evolve, having clear context behind the numbers makes it easier to understand where the housing market is headed next.

One of the biggest secrets to a stress free home sale is something most sellers never think about until it is too late. The real work of protecting your price and keeping your buyer committed starts long before you ever get an offer. In a market as active and competitive as Phoenix, the sellers who prepare early are the ones who glide into closing day without last minute surprises.

That is where I step in to guide you from the very first conversation, so nothing catches you off guard once your home is under contract.

Why Some Sales in Phoenix Stall Out

Across the country, and here in the Valley, a noticeable number of contracts are not making it to closing. Redfin reports that a meaningful chunk of accepted offers eventually fall apart. Most Phoenix sellers will never run into this issue, but the trend is something to pay attention to.

The reason deals fall apart is not what most people assume. It is rarely a lender decision. Instead, the friction usually happens when the buyer completes their inspection.

Right now, Phoenix buyers are especially sensitive to repairs and condition

• They are balancing higher prices and today’s borrowing environment
• They want a home that feels ready on day one
• They have more options, especially in areas like Surprise, Goodyear, Ahwatukee, Chandler, and North Phoenix

When they discover issues they did not expect, they leave. Not because they are picky, but because they simply do not have room in their budgets for surprise repairs.

This is exactly why sellers who prepare on the front end are seeing smoother transactions and stronger confidence from buyers.

The Strategy That Gives You an Advantage

One of the most reliable ways to avoid inspection drama is something many Phoenix sellers are using right now. It is a simple step called a pre listing inspection.

Instead of waiting for the buyer to uncover problems halfway through the process, you get ahead of the story. A professional inspector walks through your home before you even go live. That gives you clarity on any items that could become sticking points later.

Think of it like shining a light into every corner so you know exactly what your buyer will see. No surprises for them and no scrambling for you.

Why This Matters So Much in Phoenix

Homes across the Valley vary in age, construction style, and maintenance patterns. A home in Arcadia has different concerns than a home in Peoria. A home in Tempe faces different wear than a home in Laveen. Dry heat, sun exposure, roof age, and irrigation systems all play a role.

When we know what your home needs ahead of time, we can decide together

• Which repairs are worth doing
• What buyers in your specific area value most
• When to disclose something instead of fixing it
• How to position your home to look strong from the start

This early clarity changes everything. Instead of reacting to a buyer’s repair request list under pressure, you begin the process prepared and in control.

Is It Right For Your Home

A pre listing inspection is an affordable choice that often saves money, time, and stress later. But it is not always necessary. Some Phoenix neighborhoods move quickly and do not require that level of prep. Others benefit enormously from it.

That is where reaching out to me helps. I can look at your home, your area, and your goals and tell you whether this step gives you a real advantage.

What This Means For Your Sale

Sellers who prepare early are seeing fewer canceled contracts, smoother negotiations, and more confident buyers. It is one of the simplest ways to avoid the emotional roller coaster that can happen once inspections start.

Ready To Feel Confident From Day One

If you want to take the uncertainty out of your sale and protect your outcome, reach out to me. I will walk you through exactly how to prepare your Phoenix home so you move into the market informed, organized, and fully ready for the right buyer to say yes and stay yes.

Buying a home should feel exciting, not intimidating. But when we hear headlines about rising interest rates, many hopeful buyers press pause, thinking they’ll wait for “something better.” The problem? Waiting often comes with hidden costs.

The so-called “magic number”

It’s common to hear that homebuyers are holding out for a rate drop to the “sweet spot” — let’s say under 6 % for a 30-year fixed mortgage. But assuming that holds is risky. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggests that if rates did hit around 6 %, millions more households would become able to afford a purchase

That’s great—it means more people buying. But more buyers means more competition, which tends to push home prices upward. In other words: rate relief may not be as relieving as it appears if housing costs climb in tandem.

What the numbers say

Case in point: on a $400,000 loan, a rate difference from 6.2 % to 5.99 % — while sounding meaningful — only shaves off roughly $50 per month in payments. Meanwhile, if prices begin to rise because more buyers enter the market, that $50 savings could quickly evaporate.

imagine locking in a rate now for a home in Phoenix, having access to current inventory and stronger negotiating leverage — versus waiting, only to face fewer options, higher prices, and possibly minimal rate benefits.

Why acting now can be smart

The NAR’s Deputy Chief Economist recently noted that mortgage rates averaging in the low 6 % range (around 6.31 %) have opened the door for buyers to revisit their home search with less competition and more choice.

Similarly, lenders are advising: if your personal finances are sound, the monthly payment is manageable, and you’ve found the right home, then the time to act may well be now rather than later.

What does this mean for the Phoenix Real Estate Market?

• Inventory in the Phoenix metro and surrounding suburbs often responds quickly to changing conditions. If the tide of buyers turns, you could see fewer homes priced competitively.
• Waiting for a “perfect rate” could sideline you while others move in. In a market like Phoenix, that means less breathing room for negotiation and fewer choices.
• Even if you lock in now and rates drop later: you’ve gained peace of mind, home equity growth begins, and you avoid the risk of being “priced into the market” upward due to increased demand.

Bottom line

If you’re wondering whether you “should wait,” here’s a simple checklist to help:

• Are your finances solid and home-buying goals clear?
• Have you found a home that meets your needs and budget?
• Is the monthly payment comfortable now — not just only if rates dropped?
  If you answered “yes” to these, then waiting may cost you more in missed opportunity than whatever rate drop you hope for.

In short: don’t be afraid of today’s mortgage rates. If you’re ready, this could be your moment to act — especially in a region like Phoenix where momentum can shift quickly.

If you stepped back from buying a home because the market felt out of reach, you didn’t miss your chance. The landscape across Phoenix is shifting and it’s opening new doors for buyers who are ready to explore what’s possible.

Why the Market Looks Different Now

Affordability is improving.
After a stretch of high mortgage rates and rising prices, things are finally easing. Home values are stabilizing, and as rates show signs of softening, buyers are regaining a bit of breathing room. That’s especially true in the Phoenix metro area, where steady job growth, new construction, and expanding suburban communities are helping bring more balance to the market.

More homes. More choices. Less pressure.
Inventory is growing across Phoenix. That means there’s more selection, more homes in different price ranges and neighborhoods, and far fewer bidding wars than we saw just a couple of years ago.

If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, this could be your window to find something that truly fits your lifestyle, whether that’s a quiet neighborhood near South Mountain, a newer build in Goodyear, or a modern home closer to downtown.

What This Shift Means for You

This isn’t a time to rush. It’s a time to make smart moves. With more listings on the market, you can:

• Compare options and take your time.
• Prioritize what matters most such as location, layout, energy efficiency, or community feel.
• Look for homes where sellers are motivated and open to conversation.

And this is where I can help. My focus is on guiding buyers through the Phoenix market, understanding what’s realistic right now, and helping you find the best opportunities for your goals and budget.

Planning Ahead for Success

Even if you’re not ready to make an offer tomorrow, there’s plenty we can do now to prepare so you’re in a strong position when the right home comes along.

Together, we can:

• Review what’s happening in your target neighborhoods.
• Track current pricing and trends so you recognize value when you see it.
• Create a clear path from thinking about it to ready to move forward.

Bottom Line

You didn’t miss the market. You’re stepping into it at the right time.
The Phoenix housing market is evolving, and opportunities are opening up for buyers who are ready to make thoughtful, confident decisions.

If you’ve been wondering whether it’s still possible to buy in Phoenix, let’s talk. I’ll help you navigate today’s conditions, understand where the best values are, and take the next step toward a home that fits your life.

After a slower couple of years in real estate, 2026 is shaping up to be a more active and balanced year for housing—both nationally and here in the Phoenix metro market.

High mortgage rates and affordability challenges caused many buyers and sellers to hold off in 2024 and even into 2025. But market conditions are expected to shift in 2026, bringing renewed movement, improved affordability, and more opportunity for those ready to make a move.

Let’s take a closer look at what forecasts show for mortgage rates, home prices, and housing activity in 2026—and how these trends are expected to impact buyers and sellers in Phoenix.

Mortgage Rates Expected To Ease Gradually

Mortgage rates have controlled much of the housing market over the past two years. When they climbed above 7%, many buyers hit pause and affordability became a challenge.
The good news? Experts forecast rates will continue easing into 2026.

While the path down won’t be a straight line, most economists agree that inflation and economic cooling will push rates lower over time. Forecasts from leading organizations suggest that rates could reach the low 6% range and potentially dip into the high 5% range by late 2026.

Even small rate improvements can have a big impact. A drop from 7% to 6.25% can reduce a monthly mortgage payment by hundreds of dollars. That’s expected to bring more buyers back into the market, increase loan approvals, and improve overall affordability.

What This Means for Phoenix Buyers

For Phoenix-area buyers who stepped back due to rising rates, 2026 may finally deliver the opportunity they’ve been waiting for.
Even modest rate declines could:

• Increase buying power
• Expand available home options
• Reduce competition compared to the peak frenzy of past years

Being prepared early will be key, because competition will likely increase again once rates improve.

Phoenix Home Prices in 2026: Growth Without the Spike

Many people are wondering whether home prices will fall in 2026. Based on current projections, a major price drop just isn’t in the cards—nationally or locally.
Instead, home prices are expected to see modest, sustainable growth.

National economists forecast 2% to 3% appreciation in 2026, but in the Phoenix metro area, projections are slightly higher due to steady job growth and continued population demand.
Analysts expect Phoenix home prices to rise between 2% and 4% next year—a healthy, balanced pace that supports equity without inflating prices.

Affordability Will Slowly Improve

While home prices are expected to rise, affordability should improve overall due to easing mortgage rates and slightly higher inventory.
The combination of slower price growth and declining rates should give buyers more flexibility in their budgets and make 2026 one of the most approachable markets we’ve seen in years.

Inventory Relief and More Market Activity Ahead

One of the biggest challenges of the past few years has been low housing inventory. When mortgage rates increased, many homeowners stayed put to keep their low-rate loans.
That’s expected to shift in 2026.

More homeowners are likely to list their homes, especially those who’ve been waiting for better affordability or life changes such as downsizing, upsizing, or relocating within the Valley.
As a result, housing inventory is expected to rise gradually throughout the Phoenix metro area.

This increase in new listings will:

• Provide buyers with more choices
• Help balance supply and demand
• Create opportunities for move-up buyers who want to sell and buy within the same market

New construction in areas like Buckeye, Queen Creek, Surprise, and Mesa will also help meet demand.
Builders are expected to continue offering incentives, rate buydowns, and closing cost assistance well into 2026.

More Sales and a Healthier Market Overall

With better affordability and more inventory, Phoenix is projected to see higher home sales volume in 2026 compared to the past two years.
That means more movement, more opportunity, and a housing market that feels balanced again.

Bottom Line: 2026 Brings Renewed Opportunity in Phoenix Real Estate

After two quieter years, the 2026 housing market is expected to gain momentum.
Falling mortgage rates, increasing inventory, and steady—but not extreme—price growth will create a healthier environment for both buyers and sellers.

For buyers, improving affordability and more home choices make 2026 a great time to act—especially early in the year before competition picks up.
For sellers, strong equity and stable demand will continue to support solid home values.

Ready To Make a Move in 2026?

If you’re planning to buy or sell in the Phoenix metro area in 2026, now is the time to prepare. The most successful moves happen with a strategy—not by waiting on headlines.

• Want a pricing estimate for your home?
• Need a custom buying plan based on your ideal timeline?
• Curious what your options look like in the 2026 market?

I’d be happy to help you make a smart, confident move.
Let’s connect and build a plan that fits your goals.

📊 Phoenix Housing Market at a Glance — Fall 2025

A Year of Subtle Shifts

Over the past year, Phoenix home prices have softened slightly, but not collapsed.

According to Redfin, the median sale price sits around $445,000, down about 1% from a year ago. Zillow reports a similar trend, showing an average home value near $418,000, down roughly 3.5%.

Compared to the dramatic surges we saw during 2020–2022, today’s moderation is a healthy sign of balance returning to the market.

Why Prices Have Cooled

💰 1. Higher Mortgage Rates

Rates remain elevated in the 6–7% range, keeping monthly payments higher and tempering buyer demand. Fewer bidding wars mean buyers have regained some leverage.

🏘️ 2. Rising Inventory

There’s simply more to choose from. Active listings across the metro have increased over 50% since last year, especially in the $350K–$600K price band. Buyers have more options; sellers have to compete again.

🏡 3. The “Lock-In” Effect

Many homeowners refinanced at record-low rates and stayed put, but as life events happen and people need to move, that inventory is finally trickling back onto the market.

⚖️ 4. Buyer Caution

After three years of soaring prices, many buyers are patient, watching interest rates closely. That “wait-and-see” mindset has cooled demand just enough to stabilize prices.

A Market That’s Normalizing, Not Crashing

Phoenix’s housing market isn’t in trouble, it’s resetting.

Even after small recent declines, prices are still over 50% higher than they were in 2019, proving how much long-term equity remains. Homes are taking longer to sell, but those priced right and well-presented continue to attract solid offers.

This isn’t 2008. It’s a market catching its breath after an unprecedented run-up.

Neighborhood Highlights Across the Valley

• Ahwatukee (85044, 85045, 85048) – Balanced market; prices holding steady thanks to strong schools and location.
• Chandler & Gilbert – Slight softening, especially in higher price tiers, but still among the East Valley’s most in-demand areas.
• Scottsdale & Paradise Valley – Luxury markets remain strong; limited supply keeps values high.
• West Valley (Buckeye, Goodyear, Peoria) – Larger inventory and new construction creating more buyer flexibility.

What’s Next for Phoenix Home Prices?

Most analysts expect modest movement ahead, likely a 1–3% price gain through late 2025 if interest rates ease.

Phoenix’s fundamentals remain strong: population growth, job creation, and affordability compared to coastal cities all provide long-term support.

If mortgage rates dip, we could easily see another wave of buyers re-enter the market, adding gentle upward pressure.

What This Means for You

🏠 For Sellers

Price strategically. Move-in-ready homes priced near current market value are still moving quickly. Don’t chase last year’s highs,  work with data, not nostalgia.

🔑 For Buyers

This is your breathing space. More listings mean more negotiating power. Lock in when the home and payment feel right, rather than trying to time a perfect rate drop.

The Bottom Line

The Phoenix housing market of 2025 is steady, not stormy.

Prices have cooled slightly, inventory is rebuilding, and buyers finally have room to negotiate — all signs of a market returning to balance.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply watching from the sidelines, one thing is clear: Phoenix real estate remains one of the most resilient markets in the country.

A recent Bank of America survey asked prospective homebuyers what would encourage them to pull the trigger—and their answers pointed to one thing: better affordability, especially lower prices and more favorable interest rates.

Price Growth Is Cooling

Over the past few years, home prices surged at breakneck speed, leaving many buyers frustrated and sidelined. Today, that rapid escalation has given way to a more measured pace. While price increases of 20 percent year-over-year were not uncommon during the 2020–2021 boom, forecasts now anticipate single-digit gains nationally—which is closer to a more sustainable norm.

That said, the picture is uneven across the country. Some metros still see rising values, while others are beginning to level off—or even dip. Importantly, prices aren’t collapsing; they’re simply growing more slowly. For buyers, that deceleration makes planning far more predictable.

In Phoenix, for example, home prices continue to rise—but at a more tempered clip than in the frenzy years. The market is showing signs of stabilization, with fewer arms-race bids and more time to negotiate. The overheated pace is cooling, giving buyers a bit more breathing room.

Mortgage Rates Are Softening (With Caution)

Interest rates, which recently soared to their highest levels in years, have edged downward. That ease in financing pressure is welcome news for many would-be buyers. As economist Lisa Sturtevant of Bright MLS puts it:

“Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.”

Even modest improvements in interest rates can translate to substantial monthly savings. That said, rates remain volatile—so while we’ve seen a pullback, further movement up or down is possible.

Looking ahead, many analysts expect rates to hover in the low to mid-6 percent range over the coming months—much more favorable than levels seen earlier this year. Depending on broader economic trends, there’s some chance of additional softening.

Why All This Matters

Although confidence in the overall economy remains cautious, signs of balance are emerging in the housing market. Prices are moderating, and mortgage rates have eased from recent peaks. That doesn’t erase affordability challenges altogether, but it does suggest that buyer conditions are improving.

In regions like Phoenix, where demand remains relatively strong, these shifts may encourage more buyers to reenter the market—especially those who sat out during the rapid-price years. With less frenzied competition and slower-than-before price gains, buyers in Phoenix may find more negotiating space and fewer bidding wars.

In Conclusion

The two biggest obstacles holding buyers back—prices and rates—are showing signs of change. Prices are moderating. Interest rates are easing. And both trends could continue into 2026.
If you’re seriously contemplating a move, reach out to a real estate professional familiar with Phoenix (or your local area). They can walk you through the latest data, help you estimate what you can afford, and guide you through what’s happening on the ground.

When most people think of buying a home, they picture the busy spring and summer seasons. But here in the Valley, fall often presents one of the best opportunities for buyers to find the right home — and the right deal. With the Arizona heat cooling down and the market shifting, fall in Metro Phoenix offers several advantages you don’t want to overlook.

Less Competition, More Opportunity

During spring and summer, the market can feel intense — multiple offers, fast-moving homes, and buyers competing for the same property. By fall, many families who wanted to move before the school year have already closed, and some buyers step back until after the holidays. That means fewer people vying for the same listings, giving you more breathing room and better negotiating power.

Motivated Sellers and Price Adjustments

Homes that were listed earlier in the year but didn’t sell are still sitting on the market as fall arrives. Sellers who have been waiting months are often more motivated to make a deal. You’ll see more price reductions, seller concessions, and flexibility on terms. For buyers, this can translate into savings — or extra incentives like help with closing costs.

More Inventory and Choices

Across Phoenix, the number of active listings has been climbing, and homes are staying on the market longer. By fall, this means you have more options to choose from and more leverage when comparing properties. Whether you’re searching in Ahwatukee, Scottsdale, Chandler, or the West Valley, fall offers variety without the frenzy.

Cooler Weather Makes House Hunting Easier

Let’s face it — shopping for a home in 110-degree heat isn’t ideal. By the time fall rolls around, the Valley finally cools off, making open houses, tours, and even moving far more enjoyable. Sellers who held off listing during the hottest months also tend to bring new homes to market, adding fresh opportunities.

Setting Yourself Up Before the New Year

Buying in fall puts you in a great position heading into the new year. You can close before the holidays, settle in before winter, and start 2026 in your new home. It’s also a smart financial move — locking in a purchase before the traditional spring rush when competition heats back up again.

Final Thoughts

Fall in Metro Phoenix is more than just a relief from the heat — it’s a chance to make your move in real estate. With less competition, motivated sellers, growing inventory, and cooler weather, the season lines up perfectly for buyers who want both opportunity and value.

If you’ve been waiting for the “right time,” this might just be it. Let’s connect and talk about your options for finding the perfect home this fall in Phoenix.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its September meeting last week, and while most people don’t follow the Fed’s every move, what they decided absolutely trickles down to the housing market here in Phoenix. They cut their benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percent, which is the first time they’ve lowered rates since last year. That may sound like just a small change, but for buyers and sellers it could make a real difference.

So why the cut now? The economy has been showing some signs of slowing down. Job growth isn’t as strong, unemployment has ticked up a little, and the Fed wants to make sure the labor market doesn’t lose too much steam. At the same time, inflation is still higher than their comfort zone, so they’re trying to balance keeping prices in check with keeping the economy moving forward.

For our local real estate market, here’s what this means. Mortgage rates tend to follow the Fed’s moves, not always right away, but eventually. If rates edge lower, that gives buyers a little more breathing room on monthly payments. We’ve all seen how higher borrowing costs have kept some buyers on the sidelines over the past year, so even a small drop can bring new energy back into the market. Sellers should know that more buyers gaining confidence often translates into stronger demand for well-priced homes.

Of course, this doesn’t mean rates will suddenly plummet. The Fed is taking a cautious approach, signaling they may cut again later this year, but nothing is guaranteed. They’ll be watching every inflation report and every jobs number before making their next move. That’s why now is such an important time to stay in tune with what’s happening.

If you’re thinking about buying, a Fed rate cut is a reminder that timing can matter. Even a quarter-point shift in mortgage rates can change affordability in your favor. And if you’re a seller, it’s worth paying attention too, because buyer demand often follows right behind these announcements.

The bottom line is this: last week's Fed decision shows they’re leaning toward easing some of the pressure we’ve been feeling in the housing market. It’s not a magic fix, but it’s a step in the right direction. If you’re wondering how this could affect your plans to buy or sell in Phoenix, let’s connect and talk through what these changes mean for you.

If you have been paying attention to the Phoenix real estate market, you know it feels different than it did a year or two ago. The days when homes sold the moment they were listed are gone. Today’s market is more balanced, and both buyers and sellers need to be more thoughtful in their approach.

Right now there are more homes available than we have seen in recent years. Inventory has climbed more than twenty-five percent compared to last year. That gives buyers something they have not had for a while: choices. With more options, buyers are taking their time and being more selective. As a result, homes are sitting on the market longer. The average time to sell is about sixty days, which is roughly a week longer than last year and well above the pace we saw during the pandemic boom.

Prices are holding steady. The median sales price in the Valley is around four hundred forty thousand dollars, which is very close to what it was last year. Some neighborhoods are seeing small dips while others remain stable, but the rapid appreciation of two thousand twenty-one and two thousand twenty-two has ended. Sellers who price too high are finding that buyers simply move on to other homes. When a property lingers on the market, buyers begin to wonder if something is wrong with it.

For buyers, this shift is a welcome change. There is less pressure to rush into a decision, and in many cases it is possible to negotiate on price, repairs, or even concessions. For sellers, the message is clear. Success comes from a smart pricing strategy and strong presentation. Homes that are staged, well maintained, and priced correctly are still attracting attention and good offers.

Different parts of the Valley are behaving in different ways. Homes under five hundred thousand dollars continue to draw activity, especially if they are move in ready. Luxury properties often take longer to find the right buyer. In neighborhoods with strong schools, mountain views, or great amenities, demand remains solid, but even there buyers are more cautious.

Looking ahead, experts expect prices to remain fairly flat through the end of the year. Many homes that started too high will likely see price adjustments. Buyers who are ready to act will find opportunities. Sellers who remain flexible and realistic will see better results than those who try to wait out the market.

The Phoenix market is not declining, it is adjusting. Buyers finally have room to breathe, and sellers need to adapt to a market that rewards fair pricing rather than hopeful guessing. If you are planning a move, the best approach is to stay focused on today’s conditions, not the surge of the past.